Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks 2016

In 2012 ACAPS launched the Global Emergency Overview (GEO). Since then, the organisation has provided a weekly global overview of humanitarian crises. The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016 is the first attempt to use the three years of data gathered for the GEO to identify long-term trends in humanitarian needs and build scenarios outlining potential change for countries in crisis in 2016.

The aim of the report is to deepen collective understanding of how needs have evolved over time in some of the most severe humanitarian crises in the world. It aims to contribute towards a more robust shared situation awareness across the humanitarian sector and inspire thinking that will ultimately help to improve support to crisis-affected populations.

ACAPS has identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Nin~o event across a number of regions. For each country, a dashboard gives an at-a-glance picture of the humanitarian situation in 2015. It identifies the priority needs within each country and summarises potential scenarios for the next six months. The focus is on how needs have evolved, and how access (the population that cannot be reached) and gaps in response (the population that has not been reached) have changed over the past three years. The key events of the past year and population movements follow, and then a breakdown across humanitarian sectors outlines critical issues and trends since 2013.